In a world of promotions, peaks, and unpredictable demand, sticking to what’s familiar can feel safer than trying something new, even if the data says otherwise. That’s why we built Clever AI to help merchants break free from the old playbook and explore what their data is really capable of. What should I offer? When should I offer it? And what can I expect in return?
Clever AI Forecaster isn’t just about data. It’s about direction. And it’s changing the way merchants approach cashback campaigns and business growth.
What Is Clever AI Forecaster? AI Tool for Merchant Growth
Clever AI Forecaster is Hello Clever’s predictive AI tool for merchants. It is designed specifically to help businesses make reliable sales predictions while evaluating the potential impacts of cashback incentives. It turns transaction history, market conditions and external data into clear, actionable forecasts.
The Cashback Question: Predict the ROI of Your Cashback Campaigns
How much cashback is enough to spark action? When does it become too much?
Most merchants rely on industry norms or intuition. Clever AI Forecaster brings confidence to promotions by simulating the impact of campaigns across different rates, audiences and periods, before you spend a cent.
The Cashback-Sales Connection: What the Data Shows
Source: Clever AI Technical Report 2025
After analysing nearly 1,000 transaction dates and over 100 merchants, here’s what we’ve seen:
✅ 1–20% cashback delivers reliable lift, with sales multipliers scaling to 1.2x–1.45x
✅ Cashback above 20% shows diminishing returns, stabilising around 1.5x baseline performance
That means merchants can now tailor their offers to maximise returns, not just give money away.
The Tech Behind the Magic:
How Clever AI Forecaster Works
At its core, Clever AI Forecaster is built on Transformer-based architecture, the same deep learning model that powers today’s smartest AI tools, adapted for sales and campaign forecasting.
Think of it like having a data scientist that never sleeps, analysing patterns, stress-testing promotions, and learning as it goes.
It ingests and interprets:
➡️ Transactional trends across volume, value, frequency
➡️ Contextual signals like market confidence, seasonal shifts and competitor movement
➡️ Business activity from promotions to peak periods
Instead of static reports or backward-looking dashboards, you get real-time, adaptive forecasts that evolve with your business. Like a seasoned operator who’s seen it all, only faster and fuelled by data.
From Safe Assumptions
to Growth Engine
Clever AI Forecaster isn’t here to replace your instincts. It’s here to reveal better ways forward hidden in your data. Use it to:
➡️ Set campaign budgets based on real potential
➡️ Spot quiet periods before they happen
➡️ Align staffing, stock and spend with predicted demand
➡️ Test promo variations before going live
Forecasting becomes less about hindsight and more about building a growth engine that gets smarter every time you use it.
Self-Improving Intelligence
As Clever AI Forecaster runs, it learns. A self-correcting engine updates predictions with each new data point, becoming more accurate, adaptive and personalised to your business.
Add our Expert-in-the-Loop model, where our team of account managers, fintech experts, and advisors continuously provide feedback to help guide learning and performance — and you’ve got a hybrid system that thinks, adjusts and improves. This collaborative feedback loop has:
- Reduced forecast deviation by 20-25% in scenarios involving seasonal promotions and special events
- Improved forecast accuracy by up to 15% when merchants signal significant business changes
- Reduced extreme prediction errors by approximately 30% for merchants with unique business models
Real-World Impact for Merchants
Clever AI Forecaster isn’t just about impressive technology; t’s about delivering tangible business value. Merchants using our platform have experienced:
- More effective cashback strategies with optimised rates that maximise sales without unnecessary spending
- Improved inventory management through more accurate sales predictions
- Better cash flow planning with reliable forecasts of future revenue
- Data-driven promotional planning that aligns with predicted sales patterns
No Data Scientist? No Problem.
Not every business has a data team but every business deserves better decisions. Clever AI Forecaster gives you the intelligence of a full-time data scientist, without the overhead. It reads the data, makes sense of the patterns, and turns numbers into next steps.
It adapts to:
👉 Seasonal surges
👉 Multi-location performance
👉 Niche audiences and local context
So you can focus on strategy, not spreadsheets.
What’s Coming Next: The Future of Clever AI Forecaster
We’re already working on ways to make forecasting even more powerful:
1. More Metrics
- Lifetime value
- Acquisition costs
- Inventory turnover
- Campaign ROI
- Staff scheduling efficiency
2. Deeper Context: Enhanced Contextual Intelligence
- Hyperlocal economic signals
- Sentiment analysis from social media
- Weather trends
- Competitor intelligence
3. Built-In Business Simulations
Perhaps most exciting is our vision for Clever AI Forecaster to evolve into a comprehensive simulation platform that allows merchants to test various business scenarios before implementing them:
- Cashback vs. churn modelling
- Loyalty A/B testing
- Promo timing vs. margin scenarios
Soon, you’ll be able to simulate business outcomes before making decisions.
The Takeaway
Most businesses don’t ignore data; they just stick to what’s familiar. Repeating what’s worked before feels safer than challenging assumptions, even when the numbers say otherwise.
Clever Forecaster is here to change that by helping merchants break the cycle, rethink the playbook, and act on what their data is actually telling them.
It’s not just forecasting. It’s foresight.
You’re already collecting the data — may as well see what you can do with it.
Want to see how it works? Book a Demo or Talk to the Team
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